1.天下國際週報：俄軍叛變也沒比較好打，烏克蘭反攻為何陷入膠著？

拜登在7月8日宣布，將提供集束炸彈給烏克蘭，但是遭到許多盟國和人權組織反對。集束炸彈引爆時會釋放大量小炸彈，造成大面積殺傷，還有少部分炸彈不會立刻引爆，就和地雷一樣，對當地居民的威脅將持續長達數十年。

目前有100多個國家簽署《集束彈藥公約》（The Convention on Cluster Munitions），但不包括美國、俄羅斯、烏克蘭、以色列、印度、巴基斯坦、伊朗、新加坡等國家。自戰爭開打以來，烏克蘭和俄國都曾使用過集束炸彈。

戰事開打至今已經持續超過500天。在戰場前線，烏克蘭軍隊的反攻確實陷入膠著，想要奪回被俄軍佔領的烏克蘭東南部，顯然困難許多。

雖然戰爭初期俄羅斯攻勢頻頻受阻，「但是防守佔領區相對簡單許多，」布魯金斯學會（Brookings Institution）國防安全研究專家歐漢龍（Michael O’Hanlon）表示。

烏克蘭軍方表示，俄羅斯軍隊在札波羅熱地區（Zaporizhzhia）挖掘長達數英里的綿密壕溝，有部分甚至運用水泥強化或是利用木材和土壤掩護，地面上則是佈滿了地雷。

「不可能完全摧毀如此堅固的防禦，」烏克蘭國土防衛隊的步槍團指揮官說。如果要成功反攻，烏克蘭砲兵部隊必須先炸毀整個區域，然後再利用裝甲車輛載運步兵進入戰地。但是，目前烏克蘭缺乏足夠的坦克和其他裝甲車輛。

雖然德國在今年3月已經移交18輛豹2坦克給烏克蘭，但是6月初，有部分坦克卡在佈雷區動彈不得，自此之後再也沒有任何一台豹2坦克出現在戰場上。

烏克蘭缺乏空中優勢也是一大罩門。以1991年波斯灣戰爭，在聯合地面部隊發動沙漠風暴行動（Operation Desert Storm）之前，美軍花了5星期進行大規模空襲，才盡數摧毀伊拉克的防禦工事。

但目前烏克蘭空軍僅擁有為數不多的蘇聯時代的戰鬥機與直升機。知情人士表示，最近波蘭運送十多架兼具攻擊與運輸功能的蘇聯製Mi-24直升機，但是相較於俄國，仍是小巫見大巫。

北約國家正討論是否提供美國F-16戰鬥機給烏克蘭，但首先得花時間訓練烏克蘭飛行員。此外，烏克蘭的防空系統也相當脆弱，難以抵禦俄國的空中威脅。「當我們接到警告，敵機已經升空，我們唯一能做的就是趕緊尋找掩護，」烏克蘭國土防衛隊的某位指揮官說。

如今烏克蘭戰爭已經來到關鍵時刻，戰事是否會持續升級？任何決定都將牽一髮動全身。

2.奧德薩和舊台中市8區差不多大小，台北市面積是272平方公里。新加坡是729平方公里

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live...dfc8873ac3729be

烏克蘭官員表示，迄今為止烏南攻勢已經收復了169平方公里的領土，約奧德薩大小

Southern offensive has liberated 169 square kilometers of territory so far, Ukrainian officials say

The Ukrainian military says it has liberated 169 square kilometers of territory in the south since the beginning of the offensive in mid-May, an area roughly the size of the city of Odesa.

The official Military Media Center said that in the past week Ukrainian forces had advanced by more than one kilometer “as a result of the offensive in the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions.”

It said that 10 square kilometers of Ukrainian land have been liberated in the last week.

The Ukrainian General Staff said Monday that troops “continue to conduct offensive operations in the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions, entrenching themselves on the achieved lines, inflicting artillery fire, and carrying out counter-battery measures.”

Russian forces continue assault operations at several points along the Donetsk front lines, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, with 30 combat engagements over the last day. There has been little change in frontline positions along the eastern front lines.

The General Staff said that Ukrainian forces had resisted heavy fire by Russian aircraft and artillery in the Bakhmut area, and had also held back Russian assault operations near Avdiivka and Mariinka.

The Military Media Center said that 24 square kilometers had been liberated in the Bakhmut sector in recent operations, with 4 square kilometers of territory liberated in the past week.

There have been incremental Ukrainian advances south of Bakhmut around the village of Klishchiivka.

"The enemy is resisting, moving units and troops, actively using its reserves. Heavy fighting continues,” the center said.

The Institute for the Study of War said in its latest analysis of the battlefield that “the current pace of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is reflective of a deliberate effort to conserve Ukrainian combat power and attrit Russian manpower and equipment at the cost of slower territorial advances.”

Ukrainian military officials have said that Russia is capable of bringing in substantial reserve units to compensate for losses.